What of the Islamic State

A new commentary every Wednesday - June 3, 2015

AN INNOCENT'S VIEW OF THE ISLAMIC STATE

Innocent: In the sense of a carefree time, guileless and naive. (According to Peter Meltzers's Thesaurus: "full of sweetness, light and universal siblinghood"). Much of that which I am prompted to write comes as one time Oklahoma cowboy and humorist Will Rogers claimed: "All I know is what I read in the papers." To that, I can add...the Internet. Believe what you will at considerable peril.

Before we go on, please explain to me why we should spend a second worrying about the Islamic State? Even if you could tell what it portends, there is little that you and I can do about a chaotic mess that includes their title, which exists in a number of mutations, that includes "Dah-eesh," an approximate phonetic pronunciation of it in Arabic. Can we please begin by accepting "Islamic State," as a sufficient name? Good.

The current Islamic State came into existence on the wave of the Arab Rebellion, in 2003. By 2004, It had crystallized in a re-emergence of Sunni (a branch of Islam) insurgents and disparate groups of militants.

They and the Shiites (another major branch of Islam) have been treating each other terribly since about 632 over the rightful succession, that is, who was the most divinely inspired man after Muhammad: his father in law, Abu Bakr, first Caliph of the Islamic state or Muhammad's son-in-law, and cousin, Ali ibn Abi Talib, third Caliph. They ruled over what is now great portions of Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.

Complicating matters are the Kurds, a whole different tribe that exits in three countries, Iran, Iraq and Turkey. They own a lot of oil. They and the USA are friends, therefore they would be pleased if we would send them more of everything.

The fact is, in the modern age, one man, Saddam Hussein, a Sunni, enforced a peace between the three factions in Iraq at a terrible cost. The Shiites hanged him, with our blessing.

The core of the military officers leading the Islamic State forces now include many of Hussein's former Sunni generals. They've a great amount of experience; a decade of ferocious battles with Iran and two losing wars with the U.S. and it's allies. They are bent on revenge.

After seizing broad swaths of Syria and much of western Iraq—twice now in the past 12 months—they've sent the armies composed of Shiites, many of whom were trained and equipped by the U.S. military, fleeing from the field. They were so panicked, they abandoned a wealth of American equipment for the second time. After viewing the corruption of a weak government and the increasing influx of foreigners to the cause of the Islamic State, the Iraqi soldiers have no will to fight, even though they outnumber the Islamic State forces by an enormous margin.

They are looking to Iran for salvation—an irony of monumental proportions, since between 1980 and 1988 the death toll in a war between the two states was at least 750,000 young Iranian men to 500,000 from Iraq.

The numbers of combatants in the current conflict are bit more difficult to discern. Our CIA claims that the number of Islamic State forces in the field to be less than 40,000. However, Fuad Hussein, the chief of staff for Kurdish President Barzani points out that in the 250,000 kilometers of territory presently under Islamic State control, the population of approximately 10 million to 12 million inhabitants gives the extremists of the Islamic State a large pool of potential recruits. Barzani claims that the gathering horde is attacking on six different fronts, including that of oil-rich Kurdistan, which leads me to comment on something unique: The Islamic State is being funded by the wealth from oil wells they've seized.

It has been estimated by independent sources that already 4,000 of the Islamic States fighters have been killed thus far. The Islamic State insists that far more recruits from many Islamic countries have joined them.

At this writing, the only verifiable fact is that Islamic State forces have taken Ramadi, only 80 miles from the Iraqi capitol of Baghdad.

All of the other Arabian states refuse to get involved to the degree of the maximum effort the situation demands. I predict that one day they will pay exceedingly for this reticence.

Finally, what must be a great disappointment to our military and all who oppose the Islamic State, is the tiny deterrent effect brought about by our mighty Air Force.

Minus a massive outbreak of Iraqi patriotism and/or infusion of Iranian armies, it might be good to begin an immediate evacuation of American personnel, civilian and military, from all of Iraq.

-Phil Richardson, Observer and Storyteller.

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